Irvine is the busiest city in Orange County and the one with the widest swing between its spring peak and its winter trough. This page is the calendar behind that swing, built on Zillow Research data so it stays true all year.
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Irvine closes more homes than any other city in Orange County, and because so much of its housing stock is similar, the whole city tends to move together. When buyers compete, they compete for the same floor plans in the same villages and the premium shows up everywhere at once. When they step back, the whole city softens. That is why Irvine's seasonal calendar is the sharpest on this site: the share of homes closing above asking roughly doubles between December and July.
The direction underneath the calendar has been steadily toward buyers. Over the past three years Irvine's active inventory has more than doubled, the share of homes selling above list has fallen from more than half to roughly one in five, and the typical time to contract has roughly tripled. The seasonal shape is intact. The spring peak is simply lower than it was, and the winter trough deeper, which makes timing and pricing discipline matter more than they did.
Irvine is the busiest city in Orange County by closed sales, and it has the sharpest seasonal calendar of any market on this site. Three years of Zillow Research data averaged by calendar month show a city that goes from a competitive spring, when four in ten homes close above asking, to a winter where buyers hold nearly all the leverage.
Irvine's competition curve is steep. The share of homes closing above asking doubles between December and July, then falls just as fast through the autumn. Few Orange County cities swing this far.
Share of Irvine homes that closed above their list price, three-year average by month of closing. Source: Zillow Research. Darkest bar is the seasonal high; the outlined bar is the low.
| The question | The month | What the data shows |
|---|---|---|
| Best month to sell for top dollar | July | Sale-to-list peaks near half a percent over asking; median prices peak in July, about 8% above the February trough. |
| Best month to buy with the least competition | December | About 21% of homes close above list, versus 43% in July. |
| Best month for a buyer to negotiate | December | The average home closes close to two percent under its final list price. November and October are next. |
| Best month to list for the fastest sale | Mid March | April pendings take about 16 days at the median. December pendings take about 41. |
| Most price cuts on the market | September | About one in four active listings has been reduced, double the February share. |
| Most new listings | July | New listings run more than double the December level. Inventory peaks in July at about 1.75 times the January low. |
Irvine is a planned city with a large stock of similar homes, and that is why its seasonality is so pronounced. When buyers compete, they compete for the same floor plans in the same villages, and the premium shows up everywhere at once. When they step back, the whole city softens together. There is very little of the street-by-street variation that makes Newport Beach so hard to read.
Over the past three years Irvine has moved further toward buyers than any other market on this site. Active inventory has more than doubled, the share of homes selling above asking has fallen from more than half to roughly one in five, and the typical time to contract has roughly tripled. The seasonal shape is still there, but the spring peak that once produced bidding wars now produces a modest premium, and the winter trough is deep.
For Newport and Corona del Mar owners considering an Irvine right-size, that shift is the opportunity. A city that was almost impossible to buy into a few years ago now has real selection and real negotiating room, especially from October through January. Pair that with a spring sale on the coast and the Proposition 19 two-year window covers the sequence comfortably.
Watching an Irvine village or a specific floor plan? Ask for coming-soon alerts, or start with the Irvine neighborhood guide.
Because the years before them do not describe a normal calendar. Between February 2020 and the end of 2023, Zillow's home value index for Irvine rose about 55% after two nearly flat years, mortgage rates went from under three percent to over seven, and in the spring of 2022 85% of homes here closed above their asking price with the typical sale going under contract in about 8 days. Fold those months into a seasonal average and every spring reads like a frenzy and every winter like a collapse. Neither describes the market you are in now.
The averages on this page start in January 2024, the first year after that window, and gain a year each time a normal one is added. The full series from 2018 onward, with every chart, is here for anyone who wants to check the reasoning.
Based on three years of Zillow Research data for Irvine, July is the strongest month to close: the sale-to-list ratio peaks at about half a percent over asking and 43% of homes close above list. To close in July, list in late May or June. Homes going under contract in April move fastest, so mid March is the window for speed.
December, with November and January close behind. Only about one in five Irvine homes closes above list in December, and the average sale runs close to two percent under asking, the widest gap of the year. Inventory is lower than in summer but price reductions are common.
Irvine has softened more than any other Orange County city over the past three years. Active inventory has more than doubled, the share of homes selling above asking has fallen from more than half to roughly one in five, and the average sale has moved from about two percent over asking to about two percent under. Median prices have eased modestly. Whether that continues depends on the season you are reading it in; the winter trough and the summer peak are far apart.
It varies more by season in Irvine than anywhere else in the county. Zillow's median days to pending averages a little over two weeks for homes going under contract in April and about six weeks for December. Over the past three years the typical time to contract has roughly tripled.
By the trend, Irvine is the closest thing to a buyer's market on the coast-adjacent side of Orange County. Months of supply have grown, price cuts are common from late summer through autumn, and the average home closes under asking for most of the year. Spring still favors sellers, but far less than it did.
Seasonal figures on this section are three-year averages by calendar month, calculated from Zillow Research's published monthly series for the city of Irvine (city series): median sale price, mean sale-to-list ratio, share of homes sold above list price, median days to pending, share of active listings with a price cut, new listings, and active inventory. Zillow's monthly series are smoothed three-month averages, which is why they are used here for pattern rather than for any single month's headline. You can chart the same series yourself in Zillow's Market Explorer.
Averaging window: January 2024 through June 2026. The section is refreshed once a year when a full new calendar year of Zillow data is available; the Orange County, Newport Beach, and Costa Mesa pages layer a monthly CRMLS snapshot on top of this same pattern. Zillow is an independent source and is not affiliated with Jade Larney or Anvil Real Estate.
"Irvine has cooled. Is now finally my window?"
Yes, and the window is widest from October through January. That is when the average Irvine home closes furthest under asking, price cuts are most common, and only about one in five homes draws an over-list offer. Spring still favors sellers, but far less than it did a few years ago.
The signal to watchThe share of active listings with a price cut. When it climbs past one in four, buyers are in charge.
Buyer strategy →"I own in Irvine. Which month should I list?"
List in late May or June for a July close, which is when Irvine's sale-to-list ratio and above-asking share both peak. If speed matters more than the last dollar, mid March: April pendings move in a little over two weeks. Avoid September and October, when inventory and price cuts peak together.
The signal to watchDays to pending in your village versus the city median. Irvine moves as one market, so a lagging village is a pricing signal.
Seller strategy →"I'm 55+ in Newport and Irvine is my right-size map."
This is the sequence Proposition 19 was written for. Sell the coastal home into Newport's April window, then buy in Irvine between October and January, when buyers hold the most leverage. The two-year window covers it comfortably. General education, not tax or legal advice; we plan the specifics with your CPA or attorney.
The signal to watchThe gap between Newport's spring peak and Irvine's winter trough. That gap is where the money in a right-size move lives.
The Prop 19 downsizing plan →One email a month on what actually closed in Irvine, what sat, and what it means for the decision in front of you. No listing dumps, no pressure.
Irvine is where a large share of my coastal clients end up looking when they right-size, and it is a market that rewards knowing the calendar. If you want the pattern on this page turned into a plan for your own move, in or out, that conversation is the next step.